Project Estimation: The Scientific Way

At its core, estimating is a personal process. When estimating a task, your brain combines past experiences, confidence, and intuition to create a best guess. Paul Pagel explores estimating techniques that can turn your guesses into more accurate estimates on which you and your organization can rely. Join Paul and dive into estimating techniques you can use to go beyond gut instinct: PERT calculations, range estimates, normalized team estimates, and risk-based assessment estimation techniques. Before creating an estimate, you first should determine how accurate an estimate you need and what’s possible. Do you need estimates that are 50–75% correct, or is the project one that needs a higher accuracy? Paul shows how to determine the right level of confidence for your project and how to create estimates at that confidence level. He illustrates each of these estimating techniques through real-world examples. Then you’ll practice each technique-as individuals and in groups-learning how and when to apply it. Leave with an increased ability to make more accurate estimates.